Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or delay beyond 7 days
AI updated 7/1/2026, 7:45:27 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
90%
ORYN Consensus
90%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 87-93
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
4
Price history
4 points
This market is about whether both teams slay the Baron Nashor at least once during Game 1. Baron Nashor is a powerful neutral objective in League of Legends that first spawns at 20:00 game time and respawns 6 minutes after each death, granting the slaying team the Hand of Baron buff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Eintracht Frankfurt and Team Orange Gaming each slay Baron Nashor at least once during Game 1. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not slay Baron Nashor during Game 1. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 1 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had slain Baron Nashor prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 1 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a 90% probability that both teams in Game 1 will slay Baron Nashor at least once, reflecting high confidence in objective control during the match. This is a niche esports prediction with clear resolution criteria based on official or credible reporting.
Both teams are likely to seek Baron Nashor due to its strategic value, with high-level play increasing the likelihood of multiple slays. The 90% probability suggests strong market confidence in teams prioritizing this objective.
Either team may avoid Baron Nashor to focus on other objectives (e.g., Elder Dragon, towers), or poor coordination could prevent both teams from securing the kill. Early game dynamics or a one-sided match could also reduce Baron fights.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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