Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_player_availability
AI updated 7/1/2026, 11:45:46 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,365,095
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between LYON and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON wins 2 or more games than FURIA Esports in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FURIA Esports". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for LY (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) in the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match is evenly split at 50%, reflecting balanced expectations between the two teams. The handicap format introduces additional uncertainty, as a 2-game differential is required for resolution.
LYON could benefit from home advantage (if playing in Europe) or stronger late-game coaching, enabling them to exceed the +1.5 handicap. If FURIA struggles with early drafts or mid-game transitions, LYON may secure a dominant 3-0 or 2-1 victory, validating the bull case.
FURIA Esports may leverage their international experience and aggressive playstyle to outmaneuver LYON, particularly if the latter falters in key skirmishes or objective control. A 2-0 or 1-2 loss with a 2-game differential would validate the bear case, despite the handicap.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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