Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_cancellation
AI updated 7/1/2026, 11:46:20 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,365,095
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
3d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market is about whether both teams slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 5. In League of Legends, elemental dragons (Infernal, Mountain, Ocean, Hextech, Chemtech, and Cloud) spawn in the dragon pit starting at 5:00 game time. After being slain, the next dragon spawns 5 minutes later. Once a team claims the Dragon Soul (by slaying four dragons), all subsequent dragon spawns become Elder Dragons. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Bilibili Gaming and T1 each slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 5. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not slay any elemental dragon during Game 5. Only elemental dragons count toward this market — Elder Dragon kills do not count. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 5 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 5 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 5 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 5 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had slain at least one elemental dragon prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 5 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 50% chance that both Bilibili Gaming and T1 slay at least one elemental dragon in Game 5 of their series. The neutral probability reflects high uncertainty due to limited predictive signals at this stage.
Both teams are historically aggressive in dragon control, with T1 favoring early-game skirmishes and Bilibili Gaming excelling in objective play. If Game 5 reaches late stages, the likelihood of both teams securing dragons increases significantly.
Elemental dragon spawns are time-sensitive and require coordination; either team may prioritize other objectives (e.g., Baron, towers) or face early-game disadvantages. A short or disrupted Game 5 reduces dragon opportunities.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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