Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential inaccuracies in the XTracker tool's post-counting mechanism
AI updated 6/28/2026, 6:00:51 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
7%
ORYN Consensus
7%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
965,623
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 4-10
—
Resolution
9d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
9 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 30, 12:00 PM ET and July 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low probability (6.5%) that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei will post 15-19 times on X between June 30 and July 7, 2026. This reflects skepticism about his sustained high-volume posting activity over a week-long period.
Khamenei may increase posting frequency due to geopolitical events (e.g., nuclear negotiations, regional tensions) or domestic policy shifts requiring direct communication. His official account (@khamenei_ir) has historically seen spikes in activity during critical junctures, which could align with the target range.
Khamenei’s posting frequency has been inconsistent, often averaging fewer than 10 posts per week in recent years. Technical issues (e.g., platform restrictions, account suspensions) or strategic shifts (e.g., reduced reliance on X) could suppress activity below the 15-19 range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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