Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Inaccurate tracking by XTracker or X's secondary resolution source
Calibrated 100% · raw 1300% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:00:44 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 44% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
22%
ORYN Consensus
35%
Signal Score
+13.0
Opportunity
10.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,879,343
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1300.0¢
Entry: 19-25
—
Resolution
10d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
12 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 3, 12:00 PM ET and July 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a 37.5% probability that Khamenei will post 5-9 times on X between July 3-10, 2026. This indicates skepticism about high-frequency posting activity from the Iranian Supreme Leader during the specified week.
Khamenei may increase posting frequency due to geopolitical developments (e.g., nuclear negotiations, regional tensions) or domestic policy shifts requiring public messaging. A higher-than-expected count could reflect proactive communication to shape narratives amid escalating crises.
Khamenei's posting activity may decline due to health concerns, reduced diplomatic urgency, or platform policy changes (e.g., X restrictions). A lower count could indicate a strategic shift toward controlled, curated messaging rather than high-volume engagement.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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