Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Technical issues with the tracking tool (Xtracker) leading to inaccurate counts
Calibrated 100% · raw 3600% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:01:02 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
42%
Signal Score
+36.0
Opportunity
27.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 3600.0¢
Entry: 3-9
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
2
Price history
42 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 3, 12:00 PM ET and July 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a 39% probability that Khamenei will post between 20-24 times on X from July 3 to July 10, 2026. This reflects moderate skepticism about his activity level during the specified period.
Khamenei may increase posting frequency due to geopolitical developments, domestic policy announcements, or regional tensions requiring public messaging. Historical patterns show spikes in activity during crises or significant events, supporting a higher post count.
Khamenei's posting frequency could decline due to health concerns, reduced need for public engagement, or platform policy changes on X (e.g., restrictions on Iranian accounts). Past trends indicate periods of lower activity, particularly during domestic unrest or international isolation.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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