Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Inaccurate tracking due to X's evolving API or censorship
Calibrated 100% · raw 400% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:00:55 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 44% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
8%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
+4.0
Opportunity
3.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,879,648
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 400.0¢
Entry: 5-11
—
Resolution
10d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
7 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 3, 12:00 PM ET and July 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a low probability (8%) that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei will post 15-19 times on X (formerly Twitter) between July 3-10, 2026. This reflects skepticism about his recent social media activity levels.
Khamenei could increase posting frequency due to geopolitical developments (e.g., nuclear negotiations, regional conflicts) requiring direct communication, or a strategic shift in digital engagement to counter domestic dissent or international isolation.
His posting frequency may decline due to health concerns, reduced need for direct messaging given state-controlled media dominance, or platform restrictions (e.g., X policy changes, Iranian censorship). Historical data shows inconsistent posting patterns.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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