Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_non_completion
Calibrated 100% · raw 4760% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:31:03 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
-47.6
Opportunity
30.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4760.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
3 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Francisco Rocha and Mert Alkaya in the ITF Porto, originally scheduled for June 27, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 is not completed for any reason (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Rocha vs. Alkaya Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 is currently at 50.00%, indicating a balanced expectation between the 'Over' and 'Under' outcomes. The match's uncertainty is amplified by potential non-completion scenarios, which default to a 50-50 resolution.
A bullish outcome (Over 9.5 games) is supported by the possibility of both players being aggressive baseline ralliers, leading to extended rallies and higher game counts. The ITF Porto surface (likely clay) may further slow play, increasing total games. Historical data for both players suggests they frequently exceed 9 games in sets.
A bearish outcome (Under 9.5 games) could occur if either player dominates with powerful serves or aggressive net play, shortening games per set. Weather disruptions, early retirements, or tactical defensive play (e.g., high-percentage serving) could also reduce total games. The default 50-50 resolution if set 2 is incomplete adds downside risk.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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