Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: incomplete_set_2_resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 4960% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:30:56 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
-49.6
Opportunity
32.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4960.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
4
Price history
3 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Francisco Rocha and Mert Alkaya in the ITF Porto, originally scheduled for June 27, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 is not completed for any reason (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Rocha vs. Alkaya Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 is currently at 50%, indicating a balanced outlook with no clear consensus on whether the total games in set 2 will exceed 8.5. The 50-50 resolution probability reflects the binary nature of the outcome and the lack of decisive market sentiment.
A bullish outlook assumes both players engage in an aggressive baseline rally or frequent net play, leading to high game counts per set. Mert Alkaya, ranked higher and with a stronger serve, may dominate points, prolonging rallies and increasing game totals. Francisco Rocha’s baseline style could also contribute to extended exchanges.
A bearish outlook suggests a tightly contested match with frequent breaks of serve or quick points, resulting in fewer total games. Both players’ serve dominance or tactical errors could limit rally length. If either player is significantly stronger, they may close out the set quickly, reducing the game count below 9.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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