Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or delay beyond resolution window
Calibrated 100% · raw 4960% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:31:11 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
-49.6
Opportunity
29.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4960.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
3 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Francisco Rocha and Mert Alkaya in the ITF Porto, originally scheduled for June 27, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 is not completed for any reason (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Rocha vs. Alkaya Set 2 Games Over/Under 10.5 is evenly split at 50%, indicating high uncertainty about the total games played in the second set of this ITF Porto tennis match. The resolution conditions create significant ambiguity, particularly regarding incomplete sets or match cancellations.
A bullish outcome assumes a high-scoring second set with aggressive baseline play or frequent tiebreaks, pushing the total games to 11 or more. Players with strong serving or all-court styles (e.g., Rocha's power baseline) may extend rallies, favoring the 'Over' outcome.
A bearish outcome suggests a tightly contested or short second set, with one player dominating through holds or quick breaks. Defensive playstyles or weather interruptions could truncate the set, leading to fewer than 11 games. Early match conclusion (e.g., retirement) also supports the 'Under' scenario.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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