Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_player_withdrawal
AI updated 6/29/2026, 11:33:04 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,686,458
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
7d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Kosuke Ogura and Sanhui Shin in the ITF Tokyo, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed across all sets equals or exceeds 24. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks—including any Champions/Super tiebreak—count as one (1) game toward the total. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF statistics.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ogura vs. Shin match O/U 23.5 games is evenly split at 50%, indicating no clear consensus on whether the total games will exceed or fall short of 23.5. The neutral probability reflects balanced expectations due to limited public data on the players' styles and recent performance.
A higher total game count (Over 23.5) could occur if both players engage in aggressive baseline rallies or frequent net play, leading to longer sets. Ogura's known endurance and Shin's potential serve-and-volley style might prolong matches, increasing the likelihood of exceeding the threshold.
A lower total game count (Under 23.5) might result if either player dominates with powerful serves or quick winners, shortening the match duration. Weather conditions or fatigue could also reduce the number of games played, especially if the match is played in extreme heat or humidity.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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