Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: limited_public_match_data
AI updated 6/29/2026, 11:32:10 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
4
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Naoya Honda and Sora Fukuda in the ITF Tokyo, originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the Honda vs. Fukuda Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 is evenly split, indicating no clear favorite in the over/under 10 games outcome. The 50% market probability reflects high uncertainty due to limited public data on player performance and match dynamics.
A bullish outcome (Over 9.5 games) could materialize if both players engage in aggressive baseline rallies or extended rallies with frequent breaks of serve. Honda's known consistency and Fukuda's rising form may lead to a high-scoring first set, especially on hard courts favoring baseline exchanges.
A bearish outcome (Under 9.5 games) is plausible if either player dominates with powerful serves or holds serve effortlessly, resulting in a short set. External factors like weather delays or player fatigue could also truncate the first set, favoring fewer games.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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