Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: incomplete_set_2
AI updated 6/29/2026, 11:18:46 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,685,318
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
7d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Taki Adachi and Reiya Komagata in the ITF Tokyo, originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 is not completed for any reason (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Adachi vs. Komagata Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 is currently priced at 50%, reflecting a balanced outlook with no clear consensus on whether the total games in set 2 will meet or exceed 9. The resolution conditions introduce significant uncertainty due to potential match interruptions or incomplete sets.
Adachi and Komagata are aggressive baseline players with high rally counts, making an Over outcome plausible. Their head-to-head history suggests a tendency for long sets, and external factors like weather or fatigue could prolong set 2. A strong tiebreak scenario could also push the total to 9+ games.
Both players may employ serve-heavy or defensive strategies, reducing rally length and total games. Weather disruptions or early match termination (e.g., retirement) could invalidate the Over condition. Historical data shows both players often finish sets in under 8 games, favoring the Under outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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