Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_measurement_precision
AI updated 6/28/2026, 4:30:21 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.7
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
962,552
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 70.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
12 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests an extremely low probability (0.25%) that Wuhan's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will be 25°C or below. Historical climate data and seasonal trends strongly favor higher temperatures during late June in Wuhan.
A bullish outcome would require an unusually cool late-June period, potentially due to unseasonal rainfall, cloud cover, or a rare cold front in central China. Such scenarios are historically rare but not impossible, especially if influenced by atypical atmospheric conditions like La Niña or a strong Siberian High.
The bearish case is statistically improbable given Wuhan's subtropical humid climate, which typically records highs of 30-35°C in late June. Even with potential measurement errors or revisions, the likelihood of the highest temperature falling to 25°C or below is negligible based on historical averages and seasonal patterns.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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