Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_revision_after_resolution_date
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 12:15:21 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
20%
ORYN Consensus
18%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,330,063
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 16-22
—
Resolution
8h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Wuhan's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, stands at 19.50%, indicating low probability of reaching 30°C. Historical data suggests June 29 is unlikely to exceed this threshold, with typical highs ranging between 26-29°C.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unexpected heatwave or unusual weather pattern raises temperatures above 30°C. Factors like strong high-pressure systems, urban heat island effects, or climate anomalies could contribute to this scenario.
The bear case aligns with historical trends, where Wuhan's June highs rarely exceed 30°C. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-average weather patterns would support temperatures below 30°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.