Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Uncertainty in long-term weather forecasting
Calibrated 100% · raw 9440% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:32:02 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
95%
Signal Score
+94.4
Opportunity
92.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 9440.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Wuhan's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, being 24°C or below is extremely low at 0.95%, indicating a near-certain outcome that temperatures will exceed this threshold. Historical climate data for Wuhan in late June suggests consistently high temperatures, typically well above 24°C.
A rare weather anomaly, such as an unexpected cold front or prolonged rainfall, could suppress temperatures below 24°C. This scenario is highly unlikely given Wuhan's subtropical climate and historical June temperature patterns.
Standard late-June conditions in Wuhan, characterized by high humidity and temperatures regularly exceeding 30°C, make it highly probable that the highest temperature will surpass 24°C. No significant cooling trends are forecasted for the region during this period.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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