Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Single-station measurement may not capture city-wide conditions
AI updated 7/3/2026, 5:10:12 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 29% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,486,298
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 420.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
22h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market bets on whether Wuhan's July 5 high will hit 24°C or below, currently at 0.80% probability. Climatologically, Wuhan's early July average highs are around 32°C, making 24°C an extreme outlier requiring exceptional cooling. The extremely low probability reflects strong market consensus that typical summer heat will prevail.
An unusually strong cold front or prolonged heavy rain could suppress daytime heating, potentially keeping temperatures at or below 24°C. Climate variability could produce a rare cool day, though historical data shows this is highly unlikely in early July.
Wuhan's July climatology strongly favors highs well above 24°C, with average maximums near 32°C. Global warming trends further tilt odds toward above-normal temperatures. Without a major weather anomaly, the market likely resolves to >24°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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