This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data source reliability (Wunderground historical records)
AI updated 6/26/2026, 12:53:38 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
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ORYN Consensus
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Signal Score
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Opportunity
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ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a negligible 0.25% probability that Wellington's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will be 8°C, based on historical climate data showing rare occurrences of such low maxima in late June. Historical records indicate mid-year temperatures in Wellington typically range between 10°C and 15°C during this period.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an unusual cold snap or polar blast affects New Zealand in late June 2026, driven by a strong polar vortex or La Niña conditions enhancing southerly winds. Unseasonably cloudy or rainy weather could also suppress daytime heating, pushing the maximum temperature to 8°C.
A bearish outcome is highly likely given Wellington's maritime climate, where late June temperatures rarely drop below 9°C. Warmer-than-average ocean temperatures or a persistent high-pressure system could push the maximum temperature well above 8°C, making the market's resolution unlikely.
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Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.3% while ORYN AI estimates 0.3%.
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