This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after initial publication
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:00:22 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market reflects a low probability (4.5%) that Wellington's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 13°C, based on historical climatology and seasonal trends. This aligns with Wellington's typical winter conditions, where mean daily highs in late June hover around 12°C.
A bullish outcome (temperature ≥13°C) could occur if an unseasonably warm northerly wind event or Foehn effect warms the region beyond typical winter norms. Unusual atmospheric blocking patterns or a strong subtropical ridge might also push temperatures higher than historical averages.
A bearish outcome (temperature <13°C) is more likely given Wellington's maritime climate and seasonal trends. Persistent southerly winds, cloud cover, or rain could suppress daytime heating, keeping highs below 13°C. Historical data shows temperatures rarely exceed 13°C in late June.
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Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 5% while ORYN AI estimates 4.5%.
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