Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: uncertainty in long-range weather forecasting
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 2:30:42 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
40%
ORYN Consensus
42%
Signal Score
+2.5
Opportunity
1.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 250.0¢
Entry: 36-43
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a 39.50% probability that Wellington's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 11°C, based on historical climatological data and seasonal trends for the region.
June 28 falls within Wellington's winter season, where temperatures typically range between 8°C and 13°C. A 11°C peak is plausible given historical averages and potential warm northerly winds, which occasionally elevate winter temperatures in the region.
Wellington's winter climate is generally cool and windy, with historical highs rarely exceeding 12°C in late June. Persistent southerly winds or cold fronts could suppress temperatures below 11°C, favoring a lower resolution range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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