This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: uncertainty in long-range weather forecasting
AI updated 6/27/2026, 2:30:42 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
40%
ORYN Consensus
42%
Signal Score
+2.5
Opportunity
1.9
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market indicates a 39.50% probability that Wellington's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 11°C, based on historical climatological data and seasonal trends for the region.
June 28 falls within Wellington's winter season, where temperatures typically range between 8°C and 13°C. A 11°C peak is plausible given historical averages and potential warm northerly winds, which occasionally elevate winter temperatures in the region.
Wellington's winter climate is generally cool and windy, with historical highs rarely exceeding 12°C in late June. Persistent southerly winds or cold fronts could suppress temperatures below 11°C, favoring a lower resolution range.
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Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 39.5% while ORYN AI estimates 42%.
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