Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution cutoff
AI updated 6/28/2026, 12:00:27 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
40%
ORYN Consensus
40%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Shipping and Geopolitics (Strait of Hormuz traffic and 40 ships transiting are related to geopolitical events and global trade, not directly to Wellington temperature)
correlates · strength 60%
Independent Technology Growth (Manifold.love reaching 1000 daily active users is unrelated to weather or geopolitical events)
correlates · strength 60%
Geopolitical Event Impact on Oil Prices (Crude Oil (CL) hitting $60 by end of June may be influenced by Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization)
correlates · strength 60%
Weather and Global Events (Unrelated to Strait of Hormuz, Crude Oil, or sports events like Panama winning, but potentially correlated with global climate patterns)
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 37-43
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Wellington's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, stands at 39.60%, indicating a moderate likelihood of exceeding 10°C. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest variability in late June temperatures, with a slight bias toward cooler conditions.
A bullish outlook would favor temperatures above 10°C, potentially driven by unseasonably warm air masses or föhn winds from the north, which can elevate temperatures in Wellington. Climate trends over the past decade show occasional warm spells in late June, supporting a non-zero probability of this outcome.
A bearish scenario would expect temperatures at or below 10°C, consistent with Wellington's typical winter conditions in late June. Historical averages for late June hover around 12-13°C for daily highs, but daily fluctuations often dip below 10°C, especially under southerly wind patterns or cloud cover.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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