This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Potential data revisions from Wunderground
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:01:40 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.3
Opportunity
0.3
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts an extremely low probability (0.60%) of Warsaw reaching 44°C on June 29, 2026, based on historical temperature records and climate patterns. The likelihood is constrained by Warsaw's temperate climate and lack of precedent for such extreme heat.
A bullish scenario could emerge if a rare heat dome or prolonged anticyclonic conditions develop over Central Europe in late June 2026, combined with urban heat island effects in Warsaw. Climate change trends may marginally increase the odds, though historical data suggests this remains highly improbable.
The bear case reflects Warsaw's historical climate data, where the highest June temperature recorded (since 1951) is 35.4°C (2019). The absence of any 40°C+ readings and the city's northern latitude location make 44°C implausible. Data revisions are unlikely to alter this outcome.
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Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 44°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.3% while ORYN AI estimates 0.6%.
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