This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after market resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:01:27 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-1.9
Opportunity
1.9
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 3.20% probability that Warsaw's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 42°C. Historical data and climate trends suggest this extreme heat is highly unlikely for the region.
A record-breaking heatwave driven by an unusual high-pressure system over Eastern Europe could push temperatures to 42°C in Warsaw. Such events have occurred in neighboring regions (e.g., 40°C+ in Poland in 2015), though rarely in Warsaw itself. Climate change may increase the frequency of such extremes.
Warsaw's historical maximum temperature for June is around 35°C, with 42°C being unprecedented. The city's urban heat island effect is insufficient to bridge this gap. Weather models and seasonal forecasts likely project moderate temperatures, aligning with climatological norms.
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Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 42°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 3% while ORYN AI estimates 1%.
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