This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions by Wunderground after initial publication
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:30:25 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
8%
ORYN Consensus
11%
Signal Score
+3.1
Opportunity
2.7
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The probability of Warsaw reaching a peak temperature of 41°C on June 29, 2026, is currently low at 10.40%, reflecting historical climate data and seasonal norms. Extreme temperatures of this magnitude are rare in Warsaw, with June averages typically ranging between 15-25°C.
A confluence of factors could drive temperatures to 41°C, including an unprecedented heatwave influenced by a strong subtropical ridge, prolonged anticyclonic conditions, or unusual atmospheric blocking patterns. Climate trends show increasing frequency of extreme heat events, though such outliers remain statistically improbable in June.
Historical climate records for Warsaw indicate that temperatures exceeding 35°C are extremely rare in June, with the highest June temperature on record being 35.5°C (June 2019). Seasonal averages and lack of prolonged heatwave conditions in early summer make 41°C highly unlikely.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your forecast thesis.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 41°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 7.9% while ORYN AI estimates 11%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
