Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions by Wunderground after initial publication
Calibrated 100% · raw 315% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:30:25 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
8%
ORYN Consensus
11%
Signal Score
+3.1
Opportunity
2.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 315.0¢
Entry: 5-11
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Warsaw reaching a peak temperature of 41°C on June 29, 2026, is currently low at 10.40%, reflecting historical climate data and seasonal norms. Extreme temperatures of this magnitude are rare in Warsaw, with June averages typically ranging between 15-25°C.
A confluence of factors could drive temperatures to 41°C, including an unprecedented heatwave influenced by a strong subtropical ridge, prolonged anticyclonic conditions, or unusual atmospheric blocking patterns. Climate trends show increasing frequency of extreme heat events, though such outliers remain statistically improbable in June.
Historical climate records for Warsaw indicate that temperatures exceeding 35°C are extremely rare in June, with the highest June temperature on record being 35.5°C (June 2019). Seasonal averages and lack of prolonged heatwave conditions in early summer make 41°C highly unlikely.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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