Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential revisions to temperature data post-resolution window
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:15:27 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
10%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 7-13
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market prices a 10.3% probability that Warsaw records a daily high temperature of 40°C on June 28, 2026, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. Extreme heat events in Warsaw are rare, with the highest recorded temperature (38.2°C) set in 2015, making a 40°C reading highly unlikely but not impossible under unusual atmospheric conditions.
A persistent high-pressure system over Central Europe, combined with a Saharan air mass intrusion, could push temperatures to 40°C in Warsaw. Climate change may increase the frequency of such extreme events, though historical data suggests this remains an outlier scenario for the region.
Warsaw's historical climate data shows no recorded temperature exceeding 38.2°C, and June 28 typically sees highs around 23-25°C. The lack of precedent, combined with normal atmospheric conditions, makes a 40°C reading highly improbable, with resolution likely closer to the 35-38°C range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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