This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Potential revisions to temperature data post-resolution window
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:15:27 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
10%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market prices a 10.3% probability that Warsaw records a daily high temperature of 40°C on June 28, 2026, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. Extreme heat events in Warsaw are rare, with the highest recorded temperature (38.2°C) set in 2015, making a 40°C reading highly unlikely but not impossible under unusual atmospheric conditions.
A persistent high-pressure system over Central Europe, combined with a Saharan air mass intrusion, could push temperatures to 40°C in Warsaw. Climate change may increase the frequency of such extreme events, though historical data suggests this remains an outlier scenario for the region.
Warsaw's historical climate data shows no recorded temperature exceeding 38.2°C, and June 28 typically sees highs around 23-25°C. The lack of precedent, combined with normal atmospheric conditions, makes a 40°C reading highly improbable, with resolution likely closer to the 35-38°C range.
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Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 10.3% while ORYN AI estimates 10.3%.
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