Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Resolution relies on a single weather station (Warsaw Chopin Airport) which may differ from city-wide conditions
AI updated 7/3/2026, 5:08:43 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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r2: Temperature in Warsaw and Energy Prices
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r3: Temperature in Warsaw and Maritime Trade
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,513,506
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 3345.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
19h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market predicts whether the maximum temperature at Warsaw Chopin Airport on July 5, 2026 will reach 24°C or higher. The current probability of 1.55% appears extremely low compared to historical averages, suggesting potential mispricing. Historical climate data indicates that Warsaw's July temperatures frequently exceed 24°C, though daily variability remains high.
Historical weather data shows that Warsaw's daily maximum temperatures in early July often exceed 24°C, with several recent years recording highs above 25°C. Climate trends suggest gradually warming summers in Central Europe, which could further increase the likelihood of reaching this threshold. The low market probability may present a significant betting opportunity if the market corrects toward more realistic levels.
Even in July, Warsaw experiences significant weather variability and not all days reach 24°C; cold fronts or prolonged cloudy periods can keep temperatures below this level. The market's resolution source measures to whole degrees and may round down, and the specific date (July 5) could historically have a mix of outcomes. The current 1.55% probability might reflect insider knowledge or specific model forecasts suggesting lower temperatures.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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