Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate model inaccuracies for long-term forecasts
Calibrated 100% · raw 750% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:45:39 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
14%
ORYN Consensus
21%
Signal Score
+7.5
Opportunity
6.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,468,983
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 750.0¢
Entry: 11-16
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
7 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 21% probability that Warsaw's highest temperature on July 1, 2026, will reach 32°C. Historical climatological data and seasonal trends suggest this is a low-probability event given Warsaw's typical July climate.
A heatwave driven by a persistent high-pressure system over Central Europe could push temperatures to 32°C. Unusual atmospheric conditions, such as a strong southerly airflow or Saharan dust intrusions, may amplify warming. Climate change trends could marginally increase the likelihood of extreme temperatures.
Warsaw's average July high is around 24-26°C, with 32°C being a rare extreme. Persistent cloud cover, precipitation, or a northerly airflow pattern would suppress temperatures. Seasonal forecasts for Europe in July 2026 may indicate below-average temperatures, reducing the probability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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