This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate change increasing baseline temperatures over time
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:30:51 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for Toronto's highest temperature reaching 24°C on June 28, 2026, is highly unlikely with a current probability of 1.05%. Historical data suggests extreme low probability for this specific temperature on that date.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unexpected heatwave or unusual weather pattern brings unseasonably high temperatures to Toronto in late June 2026. Late June heatwaves in Toronto have historically peaked around 30-35°C, but 24°C is within the normal range for the period.
The bear case is overwhelmingly likely given historical climate data for Toronto in late June. The 10-year average high for June 28 is ~26°C, with 24°C being a common but not dominant outcome. Extreme weather events could skew this, but are statistically unlikely.
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Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.1% while ORYN AI estimates 1%.
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