Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions post-resolution (Wunderground corrections)
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:01:30 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-0.9
Opportunity
0.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
963,007
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -95.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests a low probability (4.55%) that Tokyo's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 30°C. Historical climatological data for Tokyo in late June indicates temperatures rarely exceed 30°C, with typical highs around 27-29°C.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an unseasonable heatwave or strong high-pressure system stalls over the Kanto region, pushing temperatures above 30°C. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo may also amplify temperatures slightly, though this is typically insufficient alone to breach the threshold.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Tokyo's late June climatology, where extreme heat (>30°C) is uncommon. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-average air masses could suppress temperatures below the target. Climate trends toward slightly cooler summers in recent years further reduce the probability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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