Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_heatwave_events
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:30:34 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
9%
ORYN Consensus
8%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
963,132
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 6-12
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 7.5% probability that Tokyo's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach exactly 26°C, based on historical climatological patterns and recent trends. This low probability reflects the rarity of such a precise temperature threshold in the region's typical late-June weather.
A bullish scenario could unfold if a late-season heatwave or unusual weather pattern pushes temperatures in Tokyo to 26°C or higher. Persistent high-pressure systems, urban heat island effects, or unseasonably warm air masses could contribute to this outcome. Historical outliers (e.g., 2019's 35.6°C record) suggest such extremes, though unlikely, remain possible.
The bearish case assumes standard late-June conditions, where Tokyo's average high temperatures range between 22-25°C. Cooler-than-average oceanic influences, cloud cover, or rainfall could suppress temperatures below 26°C. Climatological norms strongly favor this outcome, given the lack of extreme heat signals in current forecasts.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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