Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate change altering historical temperature baselines
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:30:27 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.3
Opportunity
0.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
963,007
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -25.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Tokyo's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, at 24°C is highly unlikely, with a current probability of 1.15%. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest a significantly higher probability of temperatures exceeding 24°C during late June in Tokyo.
A bullish scenario would require an unusual weather pattern, such as a cold snap or prolonged cloud cover, suppressing temperatures to 24°C or below. This could occur if a rare polar air mass influences the region or if a strong typhoon disrupts typical summer warming trends. However, such conditions are statistically rare in late June.
The bear case is more plausible given Tokyo's late June climate norms. Standard meteorological data indicates average high temperatures in the 28-32°C range, with 24°C being unusually cool for the season. Persistent rain or unseasonable weather could contribute to this outcome, but it remains improbable based on historical trends.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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