This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: unexpected_meteorological_events_such_as_typhoons_or_cold_fronts
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:15:27 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
84%
ORYN Consensus
87%
Signal Score
+3.5
Opportunity
3.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market indicates an 83.50% probability that Tokyo's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will be 23°C, based on historical weather trends and current forecasts. This suggests strong confidence in stable, mild conditions for that date.
Tokyo typically experiences mild late-June temperatures, with historical averages around 24-26°C. A 23°C high is plausible and aligns with cooler-than-average seasonal patterns, supported by recent climate trends showing slight cooling in East Asia.
June in Tokyo is usually warm, with historical highs often exceeding 25°C. A 23°C reading would require unusual weather patterns, such as unseasonable cloud cover, rain, or cold air intrusions, which are less likely but not impossible.
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Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 83.5% while ORYN AI estimates 87%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
