This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate change-induced temperature variability
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:00:21 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts an extremely low probability (0.05%) that Tokyo's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will be 21°C or below. Historical climate data for Tokyo in late June typically shows average highs well above this threshold, supporting the near-zero probability.
A rare weather anomaly, such as an extreme cold front or unseasonably cool air mass, could drive temperatures below 21°C. This would require a significant deviation from normal June climate patterns in Tokyo, which historically averages highs around 27-29°C.
Tokyo's late June climate is consistently warm, with historical data showing highs rarely dropping below 24°C. The market's 0.05% probability aligns with climatological norms, making this outcome highly unlikely without unprecedented weather events.
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Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.1% while ORYN AI estimates 0.1%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
