Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate change shifting temperature distributions upward
AI updated 7/3/2026, 5:03:10 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,179,869
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 700.0¢
Entry: 0-6
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market predicts whether the high temperature in Tokyo will hit exactly 28°C on July 5, 2026. With a current 3% probability, the market reflects the inherent difficulty of forecasting an exact temperature. Even though 28°C is near the historical average, specific whole-degree outcomes are statistically low-probability events.
Early July in Tokyo typically sees highs around 28–30°C, so 28°C is climatologically plausible. A stable high-pressure system could yield a calm day that lands exactly on that mark. Resolution to whole degrees also slightly improves the odds relative to a fractional target.
Exact temperature predictions are inherently rare—minor shifts in wind, cloud cover, or humidity can change the high by 1–2°C. Increasing climate variability and extreme heat events make a precise match even less likely. The specific 28°C outcome is one of many possible values in a narrow range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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