Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data source changes or measurement discrepancies
AI updated 7/3/2026, 5:02:36 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,179,209
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 25-31
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market asks whether the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on July 5, 2026, will be exactly 25°C, using Wunderground data resolved to whole degrees. Currently priced at 28%, reflecting a relatively low but non-negligible chance of a below-average summer high. The outcome depends on specific weather conditions that day, with historical averages favoring higher temperatures.
25°C is within the plausible range of daily highs if the day is overcast, rainy, or affected by a cool air mass. Forecasts closer to the date may raise the probability if models show a cooler pattern, and the 28% baseline already suggests the market sees meaningful chance.
Historical July 5 highs in Tokyo typically range from 28–32°C, making 25°C well below normal. Without a strong cool anomaly, the high is far more likely to exceed 25°C, keeping probability low. Climate trends add warming pressure, further reducing the odds.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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