Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Large-scale atmospheric oscillations (ENSO, IOD) altering typical summer conditions
AI updated 7/3/2026, 5:06:34 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
12%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,179,869
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market predicts whether the highest temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport on July 5, 2026, will be exactly 23°C. Given that July 5 typically sees average highs near 28°C, a reading of 23°C would be about 5°C below normal. The current market probability of 4.95% reflects the low likelihood of such an outlier event.
Seasonal variability could bring a cooler day due to prolonged rainfall or an unseasonal cold front, pushing temperatures down to 23°C. El Niño or other large-scale patterns might suppress typical summer heat. Historical anomalies for July 5 have occasionally produced temperatures near this level, providing a slim but non-zero chance.
Tokyo in early July is firmly in summer, with monsoonal warmth typically yielding highs of 28–31°C. A reading of exactly 23°C would require extraordinary cooling, such as persistent heavy rain or strong winds, which is rare. Even a cloudy day usually only dips highs to 25–26°C, not as low as 23°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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