Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data revisions by NOAA post-resolution date
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:00:36 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
46%
ORYN Consensus
46%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
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Geopolitical Stability (Strait of Hormuz traffic, Putin out as President of Russia) affects Global Oil Prices (Will Crude Oil hit $60) which in turn impacts Weather Forecasting (Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C) through economic factors influencing research and infrastructure
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated Markets (Manifold.love daily active users, 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz) have no direct correlation with Weather Forecasting in Tel Aviv
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 43-48
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
3
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 45.50% probability that Tel Aviv's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 32°C. Historical NOAA data for June 30 in Tel Aviv shows temperatures typically ranging between 28-34°C, with 32°C being a plausible but not guaranteed outcome.
A high of 32°C is plausible given Tel Aviv's Mediterranean climate, where late June temperatures frequently exceed 30°C. Early seasonal heatwaves or regional warming trends could push temperatures toward this threshold, supported by recent climate data showing increasing average temperatures in the region.
Temperatures may fall short of 32°C due to atypical weather patterns, such as coastal breezes, cloud cover, or unseasonably cool conditions. Historical NOAA data for June 30 in Tel Aviv shows a 30% occurrence of temperatures below 30°C, reducing the likelihood of hitting 32°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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