Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential revisions to NOAA's temperature data after initial publication
Calibrated 100% · raw 140% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:30:19 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+1.4
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 140.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
6 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, currently stands at 1.55%, indicating a low probability of the temperature reaching 29°C or below. Historical and climatological trends suggest higher likelihoods of warmer conditions during late June in the region.
A cooler-than-expected June 29 could occur due to atypical weather patterns such as an unseasonal cold front, marine layer influence, or delayed seasonal warming. Data from NOAA's Ben Gurion station shows occasional dips below 29°C in late June, though these are infrequent.
The high probability of temperatures exceeding 29°C is supported by Tel Aviv's typical late-June climate, where average highs range between 30-33°C. Persistent heatwaves or regional warming trends further reduce the likelihood of sub-29°C conditions.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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