This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Potential revisions to NOAA's temperature data after initial publication
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:30:19 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+1.4
Opportunity
1.3
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, currently stands at 1.55%, indicating a low probability of the temperature reaching 29°C or below. Historical and climatological trends suggest higher likelihoods of warmer conditions during late June in the region.
A cooler-than-expected June 29 could occur due to atypical weather patterns such as an unseasonal cold front, marine layer influence, or delayed seasonal warming. Data from NOAA's Ben Gurion station shows occasional dips below 29°C in late June, though these are infrequent.
The high probability of temperatures exceeding 29°C is supported by Tel Aviv's typical late-June climate, where average highs range between 30-33°C. Persistent heatwaves or regional warming trends further reduce the likelihood of sub-29°C conditions.
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Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C or below on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.6% while ORYN AI estimates 3%.
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