This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Potential revisions to temperature records post-resolution deadline
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:31:43 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a low probability (1.10%) that Taipei's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 28°C. Historical June temperature data for Taipei suggests this outcome is unlikely, with typical highs ranging between 30-33°C.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an unusual weather pattern, such as a heatwave or strong high-pressure system, affects northern Taiwan in late June 2026. Alternatively, localized urban heat island effects in Taipei City could push temperatures slightly above historical averages.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Taipei's historical June climate norms, where daily highs consistently exceed 28°C. Cooler-than-average temperatures due to atypical weather systems (e.g., monsoon surges or cloud cover) would also favor lower probabilities.
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Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.6% while ORYN AI estimates 1.1%.
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