Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data revisions from Wunderground after market closure
AI updated 7/2/2026, 4:45:41 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 37% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Global economic trends, potentially affected by Strait of Hormuz traffic (related to Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? and Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?), may have an indirect impact on the Taiwanese economy and thus daily life in Taipei, including temperature perceptions
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,698,130
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 15.0¢
Entry: 1-7
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
13 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 4% probability that Taipei's highest temperature on July 4, 2026, will reach 32°C, indicating strong skepticism toward such an outcome. Historical temperature records and seasonal trends for Taipei in early July suggest this is an outlier scenario.
A bullish outcome could occur if a strong subtropical high-pressure system or heat dome persists over Taiwan, leading to prolonged high temperatures. Anomalous weather patterns, such as delayed monsoon activity or localized urban heat island effects in Taipei, could also push temperatures to 32°C.
The bearish case is supported by Taipei's typical early July climate, where average high temperatures range around 30-31°C, making 32°C unlikely. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon-related rainfall, or cooler-than-average ocean temperatures could suppress peak temperatures below the threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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