Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution cutoff
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:15:33 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
16%
ORYN Consensus
17%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 12-18
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Singapore Changi Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low probability (17%) that Singapore's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 31°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is unlikely given Singapore's typical temperature ranges.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unexpected heatwave or prolonged dry spell occurs in late June 2026, driven by prolonged El Niño conditions or localized urban heat island effects. Rare atmospheric anomalies or delayed monsoon transitions could also push temperatures to 31°C.
The bearish case is supported by Singapore's consistent tropical climate, where June temperatures typically range between 25-30°C. Persistent cloud cover, increased rainfall from the Southwest Monsoon, or global cooling trends could suppress peak temperatures below 31°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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