This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data revisions from Wunderground after market resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:32:26 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market indicates a very low probability (0.55%) that Shenzhen's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 36°C, reflecting historical climatological trends favoring lower temperatures during this period. The resolution source (Wunderground) provides precise, whole-degree Celsius measurements, ensuring high data reliability.
Unusually high temperatures could occur due to a combination of extreme weather patterns (e.g., prolonged heatwaves, El Niño conditions, or urban heat island effects in Shenzhen). Climate anomalies in late June could push daily highs to 36°C, aligning with rare historical outliers for the region.
Historical climatological data for Shenzhen in late June typically shows maximum temperatures around 30-33°C, with 36°C being an extreme outlier. No significant heatwave indicators (e.g., atmospheric blocking patterns or prolonged anticyclones) are currently forecasted for this period.
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Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.7% while ORYN AI estimates 0.6%.
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