Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Measurement precision (whole-degree Celsius resolution)
AI updated 6/28/2026, 3:15:20 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
-0.3
Opportunity
0.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
963,296
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -25.0¢
Entry: 1-7
—
Resolution
3h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low probability (4.05%) that Shenzhen's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 31°C, based on historical climate data for the region. This aligns with typical June temperatures for Shenzhen, which rarely exceed 31°C during this period.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unexpected heatwave or unusual weather pattern affects southern China in late June 2026, pushing temperatures above the historical average. Strong El Niño conditions or localized urban heat island effects might contribute to higher-than-expected readings.
The bear case assumes normal weather patterns persist, with June temperatures in Shenzhen remaining below 31°C, consistent with the city's subtropical monsoon climate. Early monsoon rains or cooler-than-average conditions could suppress peak temperatures.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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