This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Late-season monsoon delays or intensification
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 3:15:31 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
49%
ORYN Consensus
47%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market indicates a near-even probability (48.5%) that Shanghai's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 28°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest moderate uncertainty due to variability in late June weather patterns.
Shanghai's late June climate typically ranges between 24-30°C, with occasional heatwaves pushing highs toward 32°C. If a subtropical high-pressure system stabilizes over the region, sustained warming could push the daily high to 28°C or above.
June is part of Shanghai's rainy season, with frequent cloud cover and precipitation suppressing high temperatures. If monsoon activity remains strong or a cold front disrupts warming, the daily high could fall below 28°C, closer to the 25-27°C range.
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Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 48.5% while ORYN AI estimates 47%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
