Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable late-season weather anomalies
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:30:27 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
60%
ORYN Consensus
61%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
952,287
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 56-62
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 59.50% probability that Shanghai's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 27°C, based on historical weather data trends and seasonal patterns for the region. The resolution hinges on precise meteorological recordings from Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station.
Historical June data for Shanghai shows a rising trend in peak temperatures due to climate change, with recent years frequently exceeding 26°C. A 27°C peak aligns with the 90th percentile of historical records for late June, suggesting a plausible heatwave scenario.
Shanghai's late June climate historically averages 25-26°C, with 27°C occurring less than 15% of the time. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon patterns, or unusual weather events could suppress temperatures below the target threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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