Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Late revisions to temperature records by Wunderground
Calibrated 100% · raw 1000% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:00:36 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
18%
ORYN Consensus
28%
Signal Score
+10.0
Opportunity
7.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1000.0¢
Entry: 15-21
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 26% probability that Seoul's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 29°C, based on historical temperature data and seasonal trends for late June. The resolution depends on real-time meteorological records from Incheon International Airport Station.
Historical data shows late June temperatures in Seoul often reaching 28-30°C, with June 2025 recording a high of 29.5°C. Early seasonal forecasts for 2026 suggest a warmer-than-average summer, increasing the likelihood of hitting 29°C. Climate trends indicate a 5-10% higher probability of extreme heat days in recent years.
Late June typically sees average highs of 26-28°C, with 29°C being at the upper end of the historical range. Recent years have shown variability, with 2024 peaking at 27°C and 2023 at 28°C. Unpredictable weather patterns, including monsoon delays or cooler ocean currents, could suppress temperatures below 29°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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