This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Late revisions to temperature records by Wunderground
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:00:36 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
26%
ORYN Consensus
28%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.5
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a 26% probability that Seoul's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 29°C, based on historical temperature data and seasonal trends for late June. The resolution depends on real-time meteorological records from Incheon International Airport Station.
Historical data shows late June temperatures in Seoul often reaching 28-30°C, with June 2025 recording a high of 29.5°C. Early seasonal forecasts for 2026 suggest a warmer-than-average summer, increasing the likelihood of hitting 29°C. Climate trends indicate a 5-10% higher probability of extreme heat days in recent years.
Late June typically sees average highs of 26-28°C, with 29°C being at the upper end of the historical range. Recent years have shown variability, with 2024 peaking at 27°C and 2023 at 28°C. Unpredictable weather patterns, including monsoon delays or cooler ocean currents, could suppress temperatures below 29°C.
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Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 26% while ORYN AI estimates 28%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
