Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Late revisions to temperature data by Wunderground
Calibrated 100% · raw 1600% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 7:45:38 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
38%
ORYN Consensus
22%
Signal Score
-16.0
Opportunity
12.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -1600.0¢
Entry: 34-40
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 21.5% probability that Seoul's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 27°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this is a plausible but not dominant outcome for late June in the region.
Unseasonably warm weather patterns, such as a prolonged high-pressure system or heatwave, could push temperatures to 27°C. Climate trends indicate rising baseline temperatures in East Asia, increasing the likelihood of extreme heat events.
Typical late June temperatures in Seoul average around 25-26°C, with 27°C representing an upper bound. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon influences, or cooler-than-average conditions would reduce the probability of reaching 27°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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