This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_revision_risk
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:45:42 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+0.8
Opportunity
0.8
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for Seattle's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, between 74-75°F is highly unlikely, with only a 2% probability. Historical climate data for late June in Seattle suggests temperatures in this narrow range are rare.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an unusual heatwave or atmospheric conditions push temperatures into the 74-75°F range. Late June historically sees Seattle's highs in the low-to-mid 70s, making this plausible but unlikely.
The bear case is strong given Seattle's historical temperature patterns. Late June averages around 70-73°F, with 74-75°F occurring in only ~10-15% of years. Extreme heat is uncommon this early in the season.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your forecast thesis.
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.2% while ORYN AI estimates 2%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
