Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate change-induced temperature anomalies
Calibrated 100% · raw 170% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 3:30:38 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+1.7
Opportunity
1.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 170.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
4
Price history
10 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Seattle's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, falling within the 72-73°F range is currently at 2.00%, indicating extremely low market confidence in this outcome. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this range is unlikely for late June in Seattle.
A rare heatwave or anomalous weather pattern could push temperatures into the 72-73°F range, though this would require atypical conditions given Seattle's typical late-June climate. Persistent high-pressure systems or unusual wind patterns might contribute to such an outcome.
Seattle's late-June climate typically features highs in the 68-75°F range, but the 72-73°F bracket is narrow and less common. Standard seasonal variability makes this outcome improbable without extreme weather events.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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