Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to historical temperature data post-resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 3960% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:30:54 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
40%
Signal Score
+39.6
Opportunity
37.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 3960.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
3
Price history
50 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Seattle's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, being between 74-75°F is highly unlikely, with a current probability of 0.40%. Historical data suggests this range is rare for late June in Seattle.
A bullish scenario could involve an unexpected heatwave or high-pressure system pushing temperatures into the 74-75°F range. Unseasonably warm conditions or localized urban heat island effects might contribute to this outcome.
The bearish case is stronger, as Seattle's late June climate typically features highs in the upper 60s to low 70s°F. Persistent cloud cover, marine layer influence, or cooler-than-average weather patterns would favor temperatures outside this range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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